On Tuesday, Democrats managed to hold onto their slim majorities in Virginia’s legislature by winning two out of three special elections. These elections were the first major test of voter sentiment since President-elect Trump’s victory in November, and they also served as an early indicator for upcoming elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and the midterm elections in 2026.
The Democrats won both special elections in Loudon County, a fast-growing area in Northern Virginia. The county has recently become a key battleground for issues like transgender rights in schools. In the state Senate race, Democrat Kannan Srinivasan, a current member of the state House, defeated Republican Tumay Harding. This seat had become vacant when Democrat Suhas Subramanyam was elected to Congress in November. In the state House race, Democrat JJ Singh, a small business owner, won over Republican Ram Venkatachalam.
Loudon County, which was once Republican-leaning, has shifted towards Democrats over the past decade. Vice President Kamala Harris won the county by a significant margin in November’s presidential election, though Trump improved his performance compared to four years ago. The margins by which the Democrats won in Loudon County on Tuesday were similar to Harris’ victory margin.
However, Republicans managed to win one special election in a state Senate district in central Virginia, where Republican Luther Cifers defeated Democrat Jack Trammell. This seat became open when Republican John McGuire, with Trump’s support, won a congressional seat in November.
As a result of these elections, Democrats will keep their 21-19 majority in the Virginia Senate and 51-49 control of the state House of Delegates. This outcome comes as Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin approaches the end of his term, as Virginia law prevents governors from serving consecutive terms.
Virginia is one of only two states (along with New Jersey) to hold gubernatorial elections in the year after a presidential election. As such, the Virginia gubernatorial election this year is expected to draw significant national attention and is often seen as a barometer for national political sentiment.
Some political analysts caution that these early special elections might not offer clear predictions for the upcoming gubernatorial races or the 2026 midterms. Zack Roday, a Virginia-based Republican strategist, stated that it’s too early to draw conclusions, as voter engagement is typically lower in off-year elections.
