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New Congress, Thin Margins, and Trump’s Influence: A Delicate Balance Ahead

As the new Congress convenes, Republicans are grappling with a thin majority in the House and a slim advantage in the Senate, creating a challenging political landscape. With Donald Trump’s powerful influence over the party, GOP lawmakers are under pressure to deliver on key promises such as tax cuts, border security, and energy policies. However, internal divisions within the party could hinder progress.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, backed by Trump’s endorsement, faces opposition from ultraconservative members who are uncertain about supporting him after a recent spending showdown. The GOP’s fragile control means that every member has the power to block crucial legislation, making consensus essential for moving forward.

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To push through Trump’s agenda, Republicans plan to use the reconciliation process, allowing them to pass significant tax and spending reforms with a simple majority vote, bypassing the filibuster in the Senate. Yet, with ongoing debates over the debt ceiling, government spending, and national security, internal disagreements could disrupt these plans.

In the Senate, Republicans will also need to navigate the challenge of securing enough moderate support for controversial measures. While Democrats will use their minority status to oppose key Republican policies through filibusters, the real test will come in the 2026 midterms, when both parties will be fighting to secure control of Congress.

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The GOP’s ability to deliver on their promises will be shaped by internal dynamics, external pressures, and the looming threat of primary challenges from Trump’s allies, making the next two years unpredictable and high-stakes for Republicans.

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